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As we approach the final quarter of 2024, the outlook for Bitcoin’s price is filled with mixed predictions. However, there are some key factors that could drive Bitcoin’s movement in the coming months, and experts are weighing in on what might happen.
Short-Term Impact of the U.S. Election on Bitcoin
One of the main factors influencing Bitcoin’s price in Q4 is the U.S. presidential election. Some experts, like Mark Yusko, believe that a potential victory for Vice President Kamala Harris could have a short-term negative impact on Bitcoin. In an interview with Thinking Crypto, he said that if Harris wins and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler remains in power, there’s concern that more stringent regulations could affect the market, leading to price dips.
Long-Term Bitcoin Bullish Outlook
On the other hand, Yusko points out that a longer-term perspective is more positive. If the current administration continues its policies of money printing and deficit spending, Bitcoin could stand to benefit. This is due to the potential devaluation of the U.S. dollar. As governments print more money, inflation rises, and Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold” could lead to higher prices.
Bitcoin’s Parabolic Move: Q4 2024 to Q2 2025
Looking ahead to the next few months, Bitcoin is entering the final stages of its four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin experiences a parabolic rally about 178 days after each halving event, which occurred earlier in the year. The next stage of this cycle could see significant price action, especially as we approach the end of 2024.
Yusko predicts that between now and mid-December, Bitcoin could reach new highs, potentially breaking into the six-figure range, with prices between $110,000 and $120,000. This would mark a major milestone for Bitcoin, especially as institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) drive buying pressure. The holiday season often sees increased interest in Bitcoin as families and individuals discuss the asset, leading to more demand.
However, the depth of any potential pullback depends on how high Bitcoin climbs in the short term. If Bitcoin reaches prices above $150,000, a larger correction could follow, with Bitcoin possibly dipping as much as 60-80% in the next bear cycle.
Bitcoin’s Fair Value and Market Cycles
Bitcoin’s fair value is another key consideration. Yusko estimates that Bitcoin’s fair value is currently in the $80,000-$100,000 range. As the network grows and more institutional capital flows in, Bitcoin’s fair value will likely rise. However, as Bitcoin’s price climbs above fair value, speculative buying could drive the price even higher, followed by a correction once the market realizes that prices are detached from true value.