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Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, recently discussed the expectations for Bitcoin in the current market cycle. For example, he thinks this cycle will be different because many believe returns will be lower than before. Last time, we saw a big increase, going from around $3,000 in the bear market to over $60,000.
He wouldn’t be surprised if we see a 20x increase from the current bear market lows. His personal target is $250,000, with his first profit-taking target at $85,000, then $120,000, $190,000, and finally $250,000.
His estimates are based on data and past cycles, but he acknowledges nobody can predict the future. He believes people might sell too early this time because of past experiences where we didn’t reach $100,000.
Spoiled Expectations
On Mr M Podcast, François pointed out that many investors, including himself, feel spoiled by past cycles. With expectations set high, there’s a concern that this cycle might only yield a 10x return, which can feel disappointing.
The Importance of Metrics
François uses a combination of metrics to guide his decisions. He focuses on three main pillars: a price target for Bitcoin, the performance of key altcoins like Ethereum and Chainlink, and a time-based target for selling. This diversified strategy allows him to act when any of these indicators suggest it’s time to sell, providing a safety net against market volatility.
Looking at the last cycle, François believes Bitcoin’s price did not reach expected highs due to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. He argues that the absence of certain market phases, like a retail mania, contributed to an early price peak.
ETFs: A New Era for Bitcoin
One of the most important developments in the Bitcoin market is the introduction of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). François believes that if these ETFs are physically backed by Bitcoin, they can positively impact the market. They offer a regulated avenue for institutional investors, making it easier for them to enter the space without needing to manage self-custody.
Adoption and Accessibility
François said that many institutions may be hesitant to dive into Bitcoin due to self-custody challenges. ETFs provide a solution by allowing them to invest in Bitcoin through familiar, regulated platforms. This accessibility could pave the way for broader adoption.
The Path Forward
François believes that for Bitcoin to reach new heights, it must become accessible to a wider audience. He acknowledges that many newcomers to the crypto space face steep learning curves, especially regarding self-custody. ETFs offer a stepping stone for these individuals, allowing them to start investing in Bitcoin without feeling overwhelmed.